how i made $100 on polymarket doing nothing

during the last 7 days i made $100. and honestly it came from the most unexpected place. it came from polymarket. specifically from weather markets.

a while back i wrote about how i lost £100 chasing a meme coin. if you have not read that one, it is right here. this felt like a small redemption arc.

polymarket has these markets where you bet on whether the highest temperature in a city will cross a certain number. let's say london today is expected to hit 15 degrees. polymarket will have contracts for 14, 15, 16, 17, 18 and beyond.

here is the thing about weather. if the forecast says 15 degrees, it can realistically land at 13 or go up to 17. that is just how forecasts work. there is always a margin of error, usually around 2 degrees either way.

but 18 degrees when the forecast says 15? that is a very different story. not impossible. but the probability is tiny.

that is where the money lives.

the strategy is simple. find a contract that is comfortably out of range. something like the 18 degree contract when the forecast is sitting at 15. buy it at 97 or 98 cents. wait. sell at 99.9 cents.

each trade makes about $2.

do that 7 to 8 times a day and you are looking at $14 to $15 daily. that is roughly $100 in a week.

i also made a small bot to help me spot these setups faster. the logic is straightforward. if the local time is past 16:00 and the highest temperature expected for the day is around 15 degrees and the 18 degree contract is priced above 96 cents but below 98 cents, the bot sends me a notification.

that window is where the edge is. late enough in the day that the temperature is unlikely to spike. priced high enough that it is almost certain to resolve yes but not so high that there is no room to sell for a profit.

i am not exaggerating. that is what happened.

but i want to be honest about the risk because it is real.

if you lose on these, you do not lose a little. you go to zero on that trade. the contract resolves at 0 if the temperature actually does hit 18. that is why i never go too aggressive. i stay two to three degrees above the expected high. not one. not right on the edge.

and i never throw a large amount on a single trade. i started at $30 per position. small enough that if i am wrong, it does not hurt. big enough that the gains actually add up.

honestly this was just a quick experiment. i wanted to see if i could build something profitable, even if small. i do not plan to keep the bot running or keep trading this way. but it worked. $100 in a week. doing nothing. and that is enough for me.

until next.
take care :)